Gold price at 1,500 US dollars
The gold price went into the weekend last week at prices just above 1,500 US dollars. Yesterday morning at 8:00 a.m. the troy ounce on the spot market cost 1,507 US dollars (FOREX). The silver price was quoted at 18.09 US dollars (16.32 euros). What will happen next? The new trading week is peppered with numerous important dates that can have a decisive impact on the gold price.
Expiration dates on COMEX
We have already examined the current situation on the US futures market: Gold market: US futures traders in a buying frenzy. Yesterday, Monday, the last trading day of the November options for gold and silver was in the USA. Today the October futures are traded for the last time on COMEX. In the environment of both events, price caprioles occur again and again.
US labor market figures
The labour market figures from the USA also regularly set the markets in motion. On Wednesday at 13:15 clock (CET) appears the October statistics of the private employment agency ADP. On Friday at 13:30 the official report of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (“Non-farm Payrolls”) follows.
Next US interest rate cut?
The focus of investor interest will certainly be the Fed meeting, the results of which will be announced at 7 p.m. on Wednesday, followed by a press conference with Fed President Jerome Powell. The US futures market is trading a 25 basis point rate cut with a 93.5% chance. Analysts are therefore confident that the Federal Funds Rate will be lowered to between 1.50 and 1.75 percent. Anything else would be a surprise.
New US economic data
But that’s not all: On the same day at 13:30 the US government publishes its first estimate of US economic growth in the 3rd quarter. The analysts’ consensus is a plus of 1.7 % over the previous year. The new ISM Purchasing Managers Index for the US manufacturing sector will also be published at 3 pm.
Eurozone in focus
The euro has recently caught up against the US dollar. Yesterday, Monday at 4 p.m., outgoing ECB President Mario Draghi delivered a speech on the occasion of his handover to Christine Lagarde. The new Business Climate Index for the Euro-Zone will be published on Wednesday at 11 a.m.. And on the same day at 2 pm there will be new inflation data from Germany. On Thursday the first estimate of the Euro zone’s growth in the 3rd quarter will be published.
Yesterday evening, MEPs in the British Parliament voted on possible new elections. It remains to be seen whether the Brexit deadline will be postponed until 31 January. A further rapprochement between the USA and China could also have an influence on the gold price. Not to forget: There are many quarterly reports this week. Among others, Deutsche Bank, Bayer and Volkswagen are reporting their Q3 figures. And: The next trump tweet is sure to come.